Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1792 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

WN 1792 · STL → RSW

departs 10:16 AM CT · arrives 1:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into RSW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ WN's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1792 · STL → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?