Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1821 · TUS → LAS
departs 3:36 PM MT · arrives 5:08 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/2 29%
Thu 11/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.