Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1862 · DAL → SNA
departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.05 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,367 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.