Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1864 · ELP → AUS
departs 5:36 PM MT · arrives 8:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from ELP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.