Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1885 · ELP → MDW
departs 12:11 PM MT · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
12pm departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.