Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1948
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1948 · SAN → TUS
departs 6:11 PM PT · arrives 7:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.