Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1974 · AUS → SJC
departs 6:21 PM CT · arrives 8:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.