Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1981 · HNL → OGG
departs 2:06 PM HT · arrives 3:04 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 13%
Thu 11/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HNL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are often late
↓
This flight has been late 7% of the time recently
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.