Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1994 · HNL → SMF
departs 12:15 PM HT · arrives 8:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 16%
Thu 11/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from HNL are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.