Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2010 · LAS → SNA
departs 7:36 PM PT · arrives 8:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±9 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.