Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2057
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2057 · MSY → LAX
departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 6:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.