Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2181 · MCI → TPA
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 10:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,167 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.