Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2241 · SMF → LGB
departs 5:26 PM PT · arrives 7:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.