Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2286 · MCO → MDW
departs 5:37 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.