Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2346
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2346 · MCO → TYS
departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into TYS at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.