Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2405 · MDW → JAX
departs 10:31 AM CT · arrives 1:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.