Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2583 · MSY → LAS
departs 5:01 PM CT · arrives 6:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.