Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2643 · HOU → TUL
departs 2:37 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.