Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2644 · MCI → MDW
departs 10:35 AM CT · arrives 12:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 7%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.