Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 269 · STL → MDW
departs 4:37 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.