Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2747 · PDX → SMF
departs 5:31 PM PT · arrives 7:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PDX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.