Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 274 · DEN → OMA
departs 11:06 AM MT · arrives 1:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at OMA that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.