Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2804 · PHX → IND
departs 4:16 PM MT · arrives 10:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.