Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2815 · MCO → STL
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 31%
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 30%
Thu 11/5 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.