Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2916 · MDW → MCI
departs 2:54 PM CT · arrives 4:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 18%
Wed 11/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,567 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.