Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2965
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2965 · PHX → OAK
departs 4:41 PM MT · arrives 6:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.