Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3011 · PHX → GEG
departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 7:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 32%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
GEG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
GEG (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.