Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3171
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3171 · OAK → LAS
departs 7:21 PM PT · arrives 9:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.