Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3218
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3218 · OGG → HNL
departs 5:30 PM HT · arrives 6:28 PM HT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 15%
Wed 11/4 15%
Thu 11/5 22%
Fri 11/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 6% of the time recently
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.