Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3263 · DEN → BZN
departs 12:06 PM MT · arrives 1:51 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.