Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3269 · MCO → RDU
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.