Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3421 · PHX → MCI
departs 6:45 PM MT · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30 64%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 33%
Wed 11/4 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,567 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.