Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3424 · PHX → MCO
departs 10:53 PM MT · arrives 5:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 64%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 23%
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are usually not late
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.13 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.