Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3457 · TUL → BNA
departs 11:06 AM CT · arrives 12:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at TUL that day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.09 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.