Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3460 · MDW → PHL
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.