Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3466 · PHX → SAT
departs 6:46 PM MT · arrives 11:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.