Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3538 · LAS → HOU
departs 5:41 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.