Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3556 · BUF → SRQ
departs 11:11 AM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into SRQ at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.