Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3626 · SAN → BNA
departs 10:38 PM PT · arrives 3:39 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Thu 11/5 24%
Fri 11/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
10pm departures from SAN are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.