Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3644 · SAN → FAT
departs 5:54 PM PT · arrives 7:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 26%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
FAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.