Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3691 · SAN → SMF
departs 3:09 PM PT · arrives 4:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 51%
Mon 11/2 35%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.