Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3787 · SFO → SAN
departs 3:21 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 48%
Thu 11/5 60%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±8 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.