Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3823 · PHX → BNA
departs 4:31 PM MT · arrives 9:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,133 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.