Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3845 · DAL → SMF
departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 6:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at DAL that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.11 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.