Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3851 · SNA → LAS
departs 5:38 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 24%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±6 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.