Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3931
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3931 · SMF → LAS
departs 8:01 PM PT · arrives 9:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 48%
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±9 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.