Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3943
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3943 · SMF → MCO
departs 10:25 PM PT · arrives 5:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 19%
Thu 11/5 24%
Fri 11/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.