Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3957
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3957 · SMF → PDX
departs 7:03 PM PT · arrives 8:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 26%
Thu 11/5 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.