Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3967
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3967 · SMF → SAN
departs 1:42 PM PT · arrives 3:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 33%
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.