Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3995
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 3995 · CMH → MCO
departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 6:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.